Podcast from a professional value investor

Off late, I find myself reading a lot of material on investing in general and value investing in particular . A few months back, I was searching for podcasts on iTunes and came across this excellent podcast by a professional value investor. The show is called “Value Line Observer” by the Value Guys. The website is http://www.thevalueguys.com/. Here is the The iTunes link to the show.

In the show, the professional investor who calls himself ‘Val’ presents three stock ideas from the weeks Value Line Investment Survey. Value Line is a provider of in-depth financial information both online and in print form. I have never subscribed to Value Line but have heard a lot of good things about the quality of information provided by it.

The show goes back 5 years and you can find all the editions on iTunes or from his website. You can also subscribe via an RSS feed. Needless to say, I find the show excellent. Val starts out with a ‘rant’ section which he now calls ‘It would help my portfolio if….’. This is where he talks about things/changes that he desires that would help us investors and our portfolios. The usual topic is around taxes and then other times its about regulations etc.

The next section is where the real fun starts. Val talks about one idea at a time. He usually starts with the valuation of the company and why he is attracted to it. He explains it in really simple terms. He typically uses the EV/ EBITDA as a measure of valuation. He then computes the inverse of that and refers to it as the ‘earnings yield’. (If you have read a previous post, you would notice that in the Magic Formula, Greenblatt uses EBIT as part of the earnings yield.) So, a company at 7x EBITDA offers a 14% yield. He refers to it as the ‘cash on cash return’. Remeber, this is a pretax number and an estimate of cash flow. He then looks at the growth rate forecasted by Value Line and adds this to the yield to come up with a total pre-tax return measure. He likes to see this number at 20% or higher.

He will then talk a bit about the company and its business/products, its operating margins, returns on capital and balance sheet. Some times he has indepth knowledge of a company if he has researched it for his ‘shop’ or has owned it.

All in all, I consider this podcast an excellent use of 30 minutes of your week’s time. I highly recommend this podcast to any student of investing who wishes to learn more about investing and what a professional investor looks for in an investment idea. This is a good way to get introduced to three companies a week and build on your knowledge base.

Finally, thanks to Val for putting this show out for the last five years. I wish he continues to do so in the future. He is doing a noble service to us fellow investors.

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Good investing books

Here are some excellent books on investing. I have compiled this list from various sources such as professional investors, other blogs and some that I have read myself.

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
This is one book that every investor should read. It was written by Ben Graham who is considered the founder of the field of Security analysis. It is an excellent read and can be understood by anyone with an interest in investing. You do not need an MBA to understand the concepts of this book. Graham refers to two kinds of investors. The defensive investor is one who lacks the time, interest and ability to select individual investments. The active investor is one who has the time, interest and ability to do more research and pick individual investments.

The Little Book That Beats the Market (Little Books. Big Profits)
Excellent and short book with simple concepts on investing. The main idea is to suceed in investing you should buy good companies at cheap prices. Cheap is defined by earnings yield and good is defined by return on capital. I have written about this book in this post.

An excellent and simple book that introduces value investing principles. It is the 2nd one in the “Little Book” series. I read it on a weekend and really enjoyed it. Some of the key take aways from this book are
Buy stocks as you would buy other things…when they are on sale, know the value of the underlying business, have a margin of safety in your investments, kinds of companies to avoid, things to watch when considering international investing, what to analyse in a balance sheet and income statement, 16 points to check in a potential investment idea, why day trading can never succeed, how to select a money manager.

Security Analysis: The Classic 1951 Edition
This is an advanced book and is considered the bible for the field of Security Analysis by Ben Graham and Dodd.

These are two excellent books even for non-professional investors. Written by Peter Lynch who was one of the most successful mutual fund managers of his time. He had outstanding results over 15 years where he beat the market by about 10% annually.

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings (Wiley Investment Classics)
This book by Philip Fisher is another classic. The book impressed Warren Buffett a lot and he has said that he learnt a lot from Fisher’s style of investing.

Value Investing: Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment

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Magic formula for stock investing

Have you ever wondered if there was a magic formula that you could use to find winning stocks and invest in them and make handsome gains?

Well, the good news is there is indeed such a formula. In the book The Little Book That Beats the Market (Little Books. Big Profits) Joel Greenblatt layed out a simple quantitative formula. He backtested the formula over 15 years and it beat the market handsomely with lower risk. So, how does the formula work.

The formula tries to keep it very simple. Its intended goal is to buy “good” companies for a “cheap” price. Sounds simple and sensible right. You want to pay less for the best companies. So how does he define Cheap and quality.

1) Cheap :  Companies that have high earnings yield. He defined Earnings yield as Earnings Before Interest Tax (EBIT) / Enterprise Value(EV). Now, most of us are familiar with the Price / Earnings ratio or PE. The PE is the multiple that you pay for 1$ in post tax earnings. Example Apple as of the writing of this post is trading at a P/E of 23. That means an investor is paying 23$ for every 1$ in Apple’ post tax earnings. Obviously, paying a smaller multiple is better than paying a higher multiple for the same earnings. i.e I would prefer to buy Apple at 10x earnings than 30x earnings, all things same.

The inverse of P/E is Earnings / Price and is often referred to as the earnings yield. (Similar to a bond yield or a dividend yield.). Professional investors often look at the earnings yield of stocks as it lets you compare different types of investment such as bonds and real estate. You can compare the earnings yield of a stock to a bond yield or the yield on a CD/fixed income investment. Since, the earnings yield is the inverse, we prefer higher earnings yield than lower earnings yield.

Now, Greenblatt does not use Earnings (E/P) but instead uses EBIT/EV. The reason he uses EBIT is that it allows you to compare companies that have different tax rates and different amounts of leverage and hence interest payments. Similarly, he uses Enterprise value instead of  the market cap of the equity. Since, EBIT could be higher due to leverage used, using EV makes it a fair comparison

Enterprise Value = Market Cap + Long-Term Debt + Minority Interest + Preferred Stock – Excess Cash.

2) Quality company: Companies that have high returns on capital (ROC). ROC is defined as  EBIT / (Net Working Capital + Net Fixed Assets)

where:
# Net Working Capital =  Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities – Excess Cash
(if Total Current Assets exceeds Total Current Liabilities, otherwise it is zero.)
# Excess Cash is determined. If Total Current Assets are greater than 2 * Total Current Liabilities, then Excess Cash is determined to be the lesser of Cash And Short Term Investments or Total Current Assets – 2 * Total Current Liabilities, otherwise it is zero,
# Net Fixed Assets = Total Assets – Total Current Assets – Total intangible assets

The best part is that he has created a simple screener that anyone can use from the website http://www.magicformulainvesting.com

Remember, both Earnings yield and ROC are backward looking metrics. He does not the forward P/E based on consensus earnings that you will find on many sites. He uses the the EBIT from the last 12 months. Similarly, ROC is based on the recent 4 quarterly financial statements. As you may have often heard, past performance is no indicator for the future performance. However, he argues that making accurate future estimates is difficult even for the professional investors. Plus, their estimates are often over optimistic. Hence, he uses the past to measure both cheap and quality. And he then says to pick 30 such companies in the portfolio.

He also says that the formula does not always work and does not year in year out. There were periods of under performance in his back testing. You may wonder that if everyone were to follow this formula, then it would stop working. Greenblatt says that since the formula has periods where it does not work and under performs the benchmark, people will stop using it. He advices that an investor using the formula give it a minimum of 3-5 years for it to work.

Hope you enjoyed the post. Your feedback is welcome.

Posted in Books, Joel Greenblatt, Magic Formula, value investing | 2 Comments

Value Investing

So what is Value Investing?

In general, Value investing is described as paying 50 cents for a business worth $1. As per Wikipedia, Value investing is an investment paradigm that derives from the ideas on investment and speculation that Ben Graham & David Dodd began teaching at Columbia Business School in 1928 and subsequently developed in their 1934 text Security Analysis. Although value investing has taken many forms since its inception, it generally involves buying securities whose shares appear underpriced by some form(s) of fundamental analysis.[1] As examples, such securities may be stock in public companies that trade at discounts to book value or tangible book value, have high dividend yields, have low price-to-earning multiples or have low price-to-book ratios.

Some people confuse value investing with buying stocks whose absolute price is low. Cheap stocks in the case of value investing means that the shares are under valued when you looking at metrics such as P/E multiple or P/free cash flow multiple etc.

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The Dangers of DCF – with an example

James Montier who is a member of GMO’s asset allocation team (formerly at Societe Generale) had published this excellent piece about “The Dangers of DCF” in 2008. I came across this article last night. These and other excellent articles can be found in his book Value Investing: Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment

Today, I read this article from Barrons online about Netflix (NFLX)

See the part italicized below.

Our target prices on NetFlix have always been justified by a blend between target multiples and a discounted-cash-flow analysis with a discount rate derived from the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). NetFlix is now at a level where using target multiples simply does not make any sense. However, plugging these new assumptions into our master DCF model now allows us to justify a target of $130 [up from $120], still offering 18% upside from current levels.

This is precisely the argument that James Montier was making against DCF. The DCF valuation method is often used to justify higher valuations for stock prices by keeping an eye on current stock prices.

I did a cursory analysis of NetFlix ( A company I really admire )

Netflix is trading at

P/E (ttm) = 49x
P/E (fy2011)= 30x
P / FCF = 5770 / 280 = 20x
EV / EBIT = 28x
EV / EBITDA = 23x

Reverse DCF shows me that 20% FCF growth for 10 years has been baked into the stock at current levels. ( assuming 15% discount rate).

Netflix is the leader in DVD rentals and leading the streaming video transformation, it has executed well, has media hype going for it with various product launches on the Ipad/Iphone/Xbox/Wii/PS3 platforms, sports a strong balance sheet, insiders own 10% of the stock. However, I do not think that shares of Netflix are attractive at current levels.

Value Investing teaches us
1) consider risk before return.
2) Investment gains depend on your purchase price ( not on the outcome of the business)
3) Investment gains are realized when you buy low relative to the intrinsic business value and with a margin of safety, and then sell at fair valuation.

Wall Street wants us to buy high and sell higher. Look forward to your thoughts.

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Participated in NYMEX Open Outcry 2008 (Houston)

I just came back from Houston from the NYMEX OpenOutcry competition. This was phase 2 of the NYMEX Commodities challenge 2008. Earlier in the day, they announced the results of phase 1 which was the desktop trading event. I was part of the team that won first place in this event.

The OpenOutcry is a totally thrilling, totally exhilarating experience, where traders trade in a pit like in the real world. In this individual competition, 66 participants competed in round 1. (with 10 from UTD). 4 out of the 10 UTD students made it to the 2nd round (Marc, Jason, Josh and myself). I improved gradually and i thought i did really well in round 2. I executed my market orders and my sell limit orders. One of my buy orders did not execute as the market did not move to my buy price. However, I made a lot of trades on my own account. At the end of round 2 eliminations, UTD had 3 members standing (Josh, Marc and Jason). I was shocked to know that i was eliminated. However, I was happy that 3 of my buddies were still in the competition. Round 3 went off well. After a prolonged meeting and discussion over eliminations, Josh missed out on a marginal call. Josh excelled in his first ever attempt in this competition. Marc and Jason made their previous years’ competition experience count and made it to the top 20 winners of the Open Outcry. UTD did not win a spot in the top 5 and rankings from 6 – 20 were not revealed. However, Jason and Marc won a cash prize for being one of the winners in the event. Seeing Jason and Marc in action, one felt they would make perfectly good real world traders pretty soon ( if they want to). A word of thanks to our FMA President Jason, for helping organize the trip down to Houston and putting up all the students at his family house.

All in all, this has been a fantastic and successful experience for everyone involved. I am sure everyone learnt a great deal participating in this event. We met with several Corporates who were excited and keen to learn more about the UTD Programs. Resumes of participants were published i a resume book that was handed to each and every sponsor.

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Won 1st place in NYMEX Desktop trading (Final Results)

I am extremely happy to state that I was part of a team that stood 1st in the NYMEX Commodities Challenge 2008.
In a competition that started out with 29 teams over 5 weeks, UTD Grad and UTD Undergrad teams ranked 4th and 5th respectively in the first round. In the final round of 2 weeks, the top 4 teams from round 1 competed. The teams were from University of Texas at Austin, George Washington University, Hofstra and University of Texas at Dallas). UTD ended up in the first place in the prize money round. Starting from a balance of $250,000 in virtual trading account, the teams ended at

UTD : 327k
Hofstra: 260k
GWU: 240k
UT : 120k

During this competition, UTD beat teams from big name universities such as Yale, UT, Rice, U Houston, Columbia, Penn State, Syracuse and Brown.

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4th place finish in NYMEX Commodities Challenge 2008 (Round 1)

March 14, 2008 was the last day of the first round of the NYMEX Commodities Challenge 2008.
I represented UTD Grad team in this competition. It is with great pride that I announce the results of the first round of the NYMEX Commodities Challenge 2008. Both UTD teams ended in the top 5 teams. UTD grad was placed in 4th position and UTD undergrad in the 5th place.

UT Austin ($212,560) took the top honors followed by Hofstra Grad team. ($178,760). UTD Grad managed to retain its 4th place from the previous day, with the rest of the teams swinging wildly for huge home runs. One team actually managed to land a lot of home runs. George Washington University gained a mind boggling $95,000 to move to 3rd place and ended with $166,500. . UTD Grad ended with $145,880.

UTD Undergraduate team turned in an awesome performance on the last day, gaining 4 spots and 15,000 on the last day to end in the 5th place. Their ending balance was $137,170.

Some of the teams that were left behind include : Yale, Rice, U Houston, Columbia, Penn State, Syracuse and Brown.
Brown was the only team with a negative balance at the end with a -$11,140 balance.

The most surprising result was that of Yale. Yale was placed in a seemingly winning position on March 7th with $214,030, which would have been more than the eventual balance of first placed UT. Inexplicably, Yale continued to trade heavily and lost a crazy $114,000 over the next 7 days.

The top 4 teams now move to the final round where they will all receive cash prizes.

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Lessons learnt from Commodities trading

I have been participating in the NYMEX Commodities challenge 2008.
The standing as of March 12,2008 were posted here.

I have learnt that trading futures contracts of commodities is not for the faint of heart. The markets are so volatile and there are so many things that can affect them. Now, during the period of the competition (Feb 13-March 14), the markets have gone only one way. that is way up. Oil moved from mid 90s to 110 today. Gas is up big time to from 8.6 to 10$.

I just wanted to list what i can think can affect Futures of Crude Oil prices.

  • Value of USD ($$$):
    • Commodities are $ denominated items. As the price of $ changes, there is a direct impact on the commodity. So, during the competition and for a couple of years now, the $ depreciated against major currencies such as the Euro, Pound. This means the oil producers earn less in their local currency terms. So, they demand more for a barrel of oil. This will push the prices of the commodities higher.
  • Interest rates in US
    • As interest rates in US are cut, its a sign that the economy is slowing down. The Fed cuts the rates to jump start the economy. This normally has the effect of raising crude oil prices. Now, if the market has certain expectations of a rate cut and those are not met due to a lower than expected cut, prices may move in the opposite direction.
  • Supply-demand
    • Laws of supply demand do impact everything that is traded on this planet and commodities are no exceptions to this rule. As demand drops, so do prices. As supplies increase, for constant demand, prices will drop. However, during speculative times, supply demand tends to be ignored. Watch for the U.S. Department of Energy data that shows the level of crude stockpiles. A reduction or draw is considered bullish for crude oil prices while an increase in supplies is bearish.
  • State of US Economy and Equities markets
    • If the US economy is slowing down and the equity markets are turning bearish, money from several financial insitutions, hedge funds, tends to flow into commodities. This can lead to speculative positions and the prices may move irrationally against the other factors, such as supply demand.
  • OPEC Production
    • OPEC controls a major portion of crude oil production levels. They have their vested interests and like to see crude oil prices stay above or at a certain level (say above 80$). OPEC meets every few months to decide its course of action and whether they will increase production, keep it constant or decrease it ( if demand is less or they want to raise prices).
  • Political factors
    • This one can throw a curve ball at you on any day. Any remote event in an oil producing country can significantly impact crude oil prices. Like the last time, Chavez caught a cold and Oil prices went up. Kidding 🙂 However, events like fears of war ( Venezuela – Columbia) , attack on pipelines in Iraq or Nigeria tend to raise prices. You need to read news at sources such as Bloomberg
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Discussion on Insider Selling / Insider Buying

Today, in the SMIF meeting(@UTD) we had a good discussion about Insider trading and the merits / demerits of basing investing decisions based on that.

There were 2 positions. One position was that if the insiders are selling more shares overall recently, then that is a point of concern. That is a valid point. However, I think that alone should not sway investing decisions one way or the other.

My opinion is that Insider selling should be looked at. However, you should look at the % of Net shares sold as well as the Insider holding % itself. Consider an example : Insiders own $800M worth of company stock ABC. They sell $35M worth of stock. Sounds like a big amount. Well, considering that they continue to hold $765M worth stock, it seems like they may be diversifying or selling to buy a huge house (they can afford to) or for any other reason. They are not dumping shares in entirety. You should however keep an eye on this to see if this is a regular pattern.

On the other hand, I firmly believe that if Insiders are buying shares of the company, that would be a positive signal.

In fact, one of the greatest investors of all time, Peter Lynch, said

“Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise”.

What this means is insider selling is relatively non key. Insider selling does not necessarily mean that the price will go down. However, Insider buying should be given more importance as that means they think the price will rise.

An excellent link is http://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/061202.asp

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